2008 Hurricane Season Exceeding Expectations
Forecasts of A Busy Tropical Cyclone Season Coming True
Aug 5, 2008
Hanna, the 8th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, aims at the Bahamas; while Gustav, a Category 4 Hurricane, has forecasters scrambling to check their data.
Predictions of a severe 2008 tropical season appear to be valid. According to Meteorologists Drs. Gerry Bell, Jae Schemm and Tingzhuang Yan of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, there is a 65% “…chance for the season to have an above normal number of storms.”
Hurricane Predictions
- Bell, Schemm and Yan of NOAA predict, “12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes” according to their storm prediction data.
- Noted researchers Dr. Phillip Klotzbach and Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, Dr. William Gray, revised their original forecast for hurricanes this season. They now predict 15 named storms with 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. According to Gray the 50 year average for named storms is 9.6 per year indicating this year will be “…approximately 160% of the long term average.”
- So far NOAA has seen an increase not predicted in their data. With tropical storm Arthur in June the center points out the unpredicted increases. “A tropical storm occurs in the Atlantic Basin during June about every other year” and “tropical cyclone activity during July was much above [predicted] average,” NOAA states on their website.
Named Storms of 2008
- Tropical Storm Arthur – Made landfall northeast of Belize City, Belize on May 31, 2008 with maximum winds of 47 mph. Arthur, “killed five people…causing an estimated 78 million dollars worth of damage…” according to Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center.
- Hurricane Bertha – formed off the west coast of Africa and rapidly intensified. She turned northeastward and strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane (120 mph winds.) It passed east of Bermuda only producing minor damage. Living “…17 days…makes [Bertha] the longest-lived July Atlantic Tropical Cyclone on record,” according to the National Hurricane Center.
- Tropical Storm Cristobal – developed off the east coast of North Carolina with most of its strong winds on the storm’s seaward side. As a result only moderate rains were felt on the barrier islands and coastal regions. Reaching peak winds of 65 mph on July 21st Cristobal was a very strong Tropical Storm that did not take any lives.
- Hurricane Dolly – started as a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa like Bertha before her. By the time she reached the western Caribbean on July 20th she had strengthened to a Tropical Storm. Crossing the Yucatan Peninsula disorganized her but she re-intensified over the Gulf of Mexico. Strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane Dolly made landfall on South Padre Island Texas near Port Mansfield with winds of 100 mph. Preliminary results indicate that Dolly killed 21 persons and caused $1.5 billion worth of damage.
- Tropical Storm Edouard – made landfall over a stretch of coast east of Galveston and west of the Louisiana border, between High Island and Sabine Pass. Edouard formed in the Gulf of Mexico on August 3rd, 2008 and hit the coast with winds of 65 mph. Hurricane forecasters Pasch and Roberts of the NHC said on the evening of August 4th, Edouard was, “…forecast to strengthen and…be near hurricane strength….” This did not happen and he took no lives.
- Tropical Storm Fay – set records by being the first storm to make landfall 4 times during one life cycle. Dropping several feet of rain in many parts of Florida, Fay reached maximum winds of 65 mph. There were 29 deaths after her slow track across Florida.
- Hurricane Gustav – is by far the deadliest storm this season. Heading for the Gulf Coast of the USA as a Category 4 storm, forecasters expect him to intensify to a devastating Category 5 storm with winds greater than 155 mph. Having killed 81 people already Gustav the toll from Cuba has not yet arrived.
- Tropical Storm Hanna – north of the Dominica Republic, is currently producing winds over 50 mph. Steered by high pressure, her track will be toward the South Florida or Cuba. Hanna is expected to intensify to hurricane strength.
The 2008 hurricane season has 2 months remaining, yet the number of storms reached is quickly approaching that number which was predicted. As Drs. Bell and Yan said in their forecast statement, “most of this activity is expected during August through October….”
The copyright of the article 2008 Hurricane Season Exceeding Expectations in Weather Forecasting is owned by Frank W. Hardy. Permission to republish 2008 Hurricane Season Exceeding Expectations in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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