April Disasters and Trends of Violence
Exploring Relationships Between the Fourth Month and Tragedies
Jun 20, 2009
This is an updated look at a historical trend of disastrous events in the month of April. Major occurrences up to 2008 were explored in the article, "Is April a Cursed Month?" The hypothesis is that a correlation exists between disasters and the Western calendar month of April, although the cause is unknown. Surprisingly, April 2009 came not to deter the hypothesis but to further imply a correlation.
American media tend to present violent news items, and virtually any time period could be selected at random and produce a long list of strange murders and unfortunate events that occurred throughout history within that date span. But April is unique in that it tends to encompass very rare, high-profile and noted disasters. To illustrate the strange correlation, the following list depicts some of the more noted historical tragedies that happened within the established time frame:
- Virginia Tech massacre
- Columbine school shooting
- Waco, Texas government raid on Branch Dividian cult
- Johnson Space Center shooting
There is no obvious explanation to this trend. Additionally, these events historically seem to center toward the middle to latter part of the month (specifically the 16th to 20th) and within the continental United States.
Looking to 2009 to Gauge Possible Validity
Recently, this trend has continued with disasters occurring in April. However, new evidence shows instances across the month, although still contained. Within the calendar month of April 2009, news media reported on the following unusually graphic events:
- 3 April - A Washington state man executes his five children and kills himself with a firearm. The bodies are found two days later and reported widely, including an AP article by Phuong Le, "Police: Dad Killed Kids Because Wife Was Leaving," which appeared in The Huffington Post on 5 April.
- 3 April - At an immigration center in Binghampton, New York, fourteen are killed and over 20 injured when a gunman fires on crowds. The gunman is identified as Jiverly Wong, an unemployed naturalized citizen with a bizarre grievance against immigrants.
- 4 April - A man fires over 100 rounds from an assault rifle at Pittsburgh police, resulting in three officers' deaths, the department's first in over a decade (CNN report).
- 8 April - A gunman opens fire at a religious retreat in Temecula, California, killing and injuring multiple people.
- 30 April - Although not in the US, a man drives his automobile into a crowd of spectators at a parade in the Netherlands, killing seven and injuring 17 others. According to a BBC report released that day, "the crowds were celebrating Queen's Day - a national holiday in the Netherlands when thousands of people take to the streets to mark the queen's official birthday."
Again, correlation does not necessarily indicate a direct link to cause. There is nothing superficially significant about the time period that would imply an explicit reason for the events. But nonetheless there is an obvious trend.
Were the search criteria expanded to the entire western world (as with the Netherlands), or the planet's whole population, obviously more examples could be inferred. But widening criteria also greatly increases likelihood of occurrence and could taint study and skew possible explanations.
Striving for an Explanation
There is no significant social or cultural event in North America or Europe that would imply erratic behavior. The aforementioned article that initially explored April's disasters examined nearby holidays but could draw no conclusions on influence.
The only obvious connection is weather change, which tends to occur in most of the Northern Hemisphere around the April time frame. Generally, that season hosts a warming period and heavier-than-average rainfall, although this varies by region.
Occult Explanations Fall Short
Numerologists are people who believe in possible mystical or supernatural connections between numbers, number groups, or math formulas and events or phenomena. It should be noted that numerology can also apply to various groups who study mathematics or like disciplines, but colloquially the term often implies a connection with the occult.
Various numerology theories exist that attempt to associate April with disasters, often relating to the number 23, which many believe to have strange properties among cardinal numbers. Among many blog posts and web entries discussing April numerology explanations, no scientific or convincing explanation is available.
Likewise, astrologers, or those who place values on calendar time periods and planetary positions, believe these factors influence human actions and predestination. The practice dates back to Babylon more than four thousand years ago and still has a following in American popular culture today.
Scientists on the whole discount astrology as nonsense, despite its many adherents. Multiple searches for any viable astrological explanation relating to the topic were also unsuccessful.
No Clear Reason but a Definite Trend in April
Although the explanation is unclear, there is no denying that there is some influence that causes humans to commit violent acts in April. Many of the worst instances of mass violence in America and western culture have occurred during this period. Whether it's weather, seasonal, or socially inspired is undoubtedly worthy of further study.
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