Comparing Obama's and Reagan's Message of Hope
Obama Builds Morale with Message In Sync with Country's Demographics
After his 1980 election victory President Ronald Reagan was able to rally American morale during a difficult economic period by appealing to the traditional values of White America. According to Oregon professor Joseph E. Lowndes this was done by repackaging southern states’ rights issues with northeastern fiscal conservative planks and presenting a platform that Reagan argued went back to the founding principles of the country. The message was designed create nostalgia of a better time. According to the Roper Center 88% of voters in 1980 were White and 52% were male. The message hit home.
Barack Obama’s Appeal to the Future of a Diverse America
Since the 2008 election President Barack Obama has worked to rally American morale by calling for new commitments to education, health care, and energy that will benefit the increasingly diverse American populace. His message is focused on the future and the hope of creating a better time for many of the groups who did not do well in Reagan’s ideal past. According to CNN approximately minorities comprised 40% of all voters in the 2008 election were under the age of 40. Additionally, 53% of all voters were woman. Given the demographic shift Obama's message appears to be on the mark. From a pure demographics standpoint Obama has the right message. In the last 28 years Reagan’s base has been demographically marginalized.
How Demographics Have Changed Since the 1980 Presidential Election
In 1980 Whites made up over 77% of the population and about 88% of national voters. In 2008 those numbers dropped to 66% and 74% respectively. Based on US Census projections Whites will make up less than half the population in about 40 years. Since 1980 about 55% to 65% of the White vote could be counted on by Republicans. This trend is eroding among younger voters. In the last election 55% of Whites voted for Obama. In 1980 55% of Whites voted for Reagan. Today 55% of the White vote gets a presidential candidate 40% of the total vote.
Historically 1% or less of all votes are cast by African Americans for Republican presidential candidates. In 1980 African Americans made up 10% of national voters. In 2008 African Americans comprised 13% of national voters.
In 2000 George W. Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote. Since Republicans have taken up the issue of immigration that numbers has continued to drop. In 2008 the John McCain got just 31% of the Hispanic vote despite running on immigration planks that were viewed favorable by Hispanics. More telling is that according to the Pew Hispanic McCain managed 19% of the vote among Hispanics under the age of 30. In 1980 Hispanics made up 2% of the national vote. In 2008 Hispanics accounted for 9%. In 1980 Hispanics made up about 6.5% of the population. Today they are over 15% of the population. As their numbers grow their level of participation in the democratic process has increased.
Other demographic changes in the electorate that bode well for President Obama’s message of hope is that the number of poor has doubled since 1980, the number of women in the workforce has increased by 20 million, and according to the National Center for Health birth rates for Whites have dropped about 25% and is currently half that of Hispanics and 70% that of African Americans. Finally there is the veteran vote. In 1980 Ronald Reagan spoke a group of veterans that was approximately 90% White. Today that number is closer to 80% with Gulf Wars era veterans number being closer to 70%. Today’s military is more diverse than ever with approximately 40% of all women serving being minorities.
Based solely on the demographics it is easy to understand why Reagan’s message reflecting the tradition of the past worked. It’s also understandable why Obama has focused his message on the commonailites of America's diverse populace and what this holds for the future.
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