Obama Gets Early New Hampshire Wins
Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location Vote for Barack Obama
Nov 4, 2008
Presidential candidate Barack Obama can claim a solid popular vote victory in the “First in the Nation” election result communities located in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. With a commanding 71% and 63% popular vote victory in Dixville Notch {DN} and Hart’s Location {HL) respectively, the first answers from this small but important swing state become evident.
Glenn Adams of the Associated Press reported on November 4th 2008, “democrat Obama defeated republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch….[and] Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain.” Although 31 of the 50 states and DC allowed early voting, Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location are the “…first in the nation to officially announce the results on Election Day,” according to the AP.
The Results
The Granite State’s northern communities have not only published their results first but also given insight into something that will be examined throughout the political day. Tradition led officials to publish their tally in a timely fashion; but the results now allow political analysts to examine another phenomenon that has gnawed at forecasters all the way through this election cycle - the shift.
The size of victory for Obama is completely over shadowed by the ultimate potential dynamics of the race; dynamics that allowed Obama to win in this region of the state in the first place. Adams continued, “…the town had gone for a Democrat only once…in 1968” and CNN pollsters showed, in their conglomeration of polls, that there was a statistical tie in the region 2 days prior to the voting.
During the 2008 democratic primaries, erroneous polls indicated Obama would win the state but final results presented Senator Hillary Clinton with the unexpected victory. John McCain won the state over republican George Bush in the 2000 primaries and the White Mountain region gave McCain his current impetus for the astonishing come back during the 2008 republican primaries.
The Shift
Political pundits have discussed this new phenomenon of state paradigms caused by demographic changes, throughout the general election cycle. Red states shifting to blue states has been the latest discourse between “talking heads” on television networks around the western world. As the general election approached, future “changes to the political landscape” became the topic of many discussions. However; until now, most of these shift debates have been mere speculation. Scrutinized, researched and evaluated supposition most definitely, but conjecture none the less!
New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes did shift from republican George Bush in 2000 to democrat John Kerry in 2004 and few state watchers would call the state with the motto, “Live Free or Die” conservative; nevertheless, Dixville Notch has remained a political bastion of republican solidarity in a fiercely Independent State. According to a CNN article on 11/4/08, “…73% of the [DN] vote in 2004 (19-Bush 6-Kerry) and…80%...in 2000 (21-Bush, 5-Gore)” went for the red republican candidate. With today’s results coming out of the White Mountains, the Obama shift conjecture has finally presented definitive (while limited) data to support the hypothesized results.
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